posted 03/09/10 12:48 PM | updated 03/10/10 11:51 AM
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Capitol Hill real estate prices, activity surged in February - UPDATE

By jseattle
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While Capitol Hill real estate apparently got a sleepy start to 2010 with January sale prices lagging the rest of the city, the sale prices for Capitol Hill area homes and condos woke up in February, with a median price 34% higher than 2009, according to data provided by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

The surge was driven in large part by a near 46% leap in median sales prices for single-family homes on the Hill, the Central District and in Madison Park. For comparison, prices in the rest of the city climbed 1.4% vs. February 2009. Also, not only were prices higher than last year, but activity surged among single family home shoppers in the area with 39 sales closing in the month. In February 2009, only 17 closed.

Source: MLS

Capitol Hill condo sales also held their own with prices climbing 16.5% vs. February 2009 on a similar number of total sales.

UPDATE: Local real estate skeptical inquirer Seattle Bubble takes a look at the February data and doesn't see much happy in it, even finding a downside to the seemingly good news for real estate agents on Capitol Hill.

UPDATE: We asked NWMLS about the underpinnings of the increase in Capitol Hill median sales prices compared to 2009. Additional data sent to CHS shows that an increase in high-end sales helped drive the average higher. In February 2009, there were six homes that sold for $700,000-plus, according to the data provided to us by NWMLS.  In 2010, there were 16 such homes sold.

UPDATE 3/10/10 11:50 AM:
The rational crew over at Seattle Bubble sent over this fever line of Capitol Hill and central Seattle's median price fluctuations over time. Bubble's takeaway: February 09's median prices on the Hill were freakishly low, and February 10's prices were freakishly high.

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Glaring Math Error
As a resident of Capitol Hill, I can't thank you enough for the wealth of information you provide me about my community on a daily basis. That being said, there was a glaring error in this post that my inner math nerd can't let slip. In the following section:

"UPDATE: We asked NWMLS about the underpinnings of the increase in Capitol Hill median sales prices compared to 2009. Additional data sent to CHS shows that an increase in high-end sales helped drive the average higher. In February 2009, there were six homes that sold for $700,000-plus, according to the data provided to us by NWMLS. In 2010, there were 16 such homes sold."

You start by asking why the MEDIAN sales price was increasing and then answered it by saying that high end sales drove the AVERAGE higher. The median and average of a set of numbers aren't always the same. The median is the middle number of a set placed in numerical order, not the average. In fact, the median is used specifically to eliminate the effects of outliers to a set, in this case represented by both low-end and high-end sales.

The final stat alone, 16 high end sold in 2010 vs only 6 in 2009, was enough to justify the increase in the median home price. Sorry for being so nit-picky...

Keep up the good work!
Comment by tim
March 10, 2010
RE: Glaring Math Error
Oh, jeez. Glaring? I should have typed "median average." Thought about it but I'm stubborn. I'll change it now. Let me know if that satisfies! If I'm thinking about it wrong, lemme know.

Thanks for the note :)
Comment by jseattle
March 10, 2010