How we voted: Precinct maps show Murray’s inroads into McGinn’s Capitol Hill

Screen Shot 2013-12-02 at 11.07.40 PMThe Republican Street north-south divide in Capitol Hill was just as apparent as it was during the August primary, according to the final certification of the November 5th election. Voter’s on the north side leaned more “conservative” as the Pike/Pine core remained a solid block in the “progressive” direction.

But while outgoing Mayor Mike McGinn maintained strong support in Capitol Hill, Ed Murray was able to dip below the Republican Street demarcation to pick up additional votes in his home neighborhood. Murray was also able to chip away at some precincts in the central part of the neighborhood that McGinn ultimately won with less support than he enjoyed in the primary. You can see the struggle the played out on Capitol Hill just by looking at the colored map compared to other neighborhoods.

“Murray made big inroads with the young voters in urban core neighborhoods. On Capitol Hill, (Richard) Conlin received only 29% of votes, but Murray managed a respectable 41%,” wrote political analyst Ben Anderstone of Anderstone Strategies.Maps used with permission of the Seattle Times

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Here’s how McGinn’s victory over Joe Mallahan in 2009 looked, for comparison:

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The Capitol Hill divide was especially stark when it came socialist challenger Kshama Sawant’s win over incumbent City Council member Richard Conlin. Conlin’s main bands of support ran along the city’s eastern and western shores as Sawant dominated the denser, center-city cores of Capitol Hill, the Central District, the U-District, and Fremont.

While Sawant’s strongest support came from Capitol Hill, the neighborhood was also her most polarizing. No where else did such a strong show of support abut such a large block of Conlin support. Sawant was able to gain ground in the more residential areas of Green Lake, Crown Hill, and Leschi to solidify her win.2013General_SeattleProp1 2013General_SeattleCouncilDistricts

Seattle voters narrowly rejected a measure to implement public financing of campaigns. The Proposition 1 vote-return map looks very similar to the Sawant/Conlin map, as denser areas were largely in support of the measure, including Capitol Hill. Some precincts north of the Republican line showed lukewarm support for the measure.

The Capitol Hill core of the new Council District 3 was strongly pro-Sawant as the candidate garnered over 65% of the vote in most precincts. Overall she got 58.4% of the vote, the strongest showing among the districts. However, if Sawant makes a run at the D3 seat in two years, she’ll face at least one pocket of skeptical constituents. Anderson points out that in one Capitol Hill precinct Sawant garnered 85% of the vote, but only managed 10% in Broadmoor.

Here’s Anderstone’s breakout calculations by the new districts:

City Council #2
District 1: Conlin 54.0%, Sawant 46.0%
District 2: Conlin 44.1%, Sawant 55.9%
>District 3: Conlin 41.6%, Sawant 58.4%
District 4: Conlin 50.4%, Sawant 49.6%
District 5: Conlin 52.2%, Sawant 47.7%
District 6: Conlin 45.5%, Sawant 54.5%
District 6: Conlin 56.9%, Sawant 43.1%

 

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District 1: Murray 57.7%, McGinn 42.3%
District 2: Murray 44.8%, McGinn 55.2%
>District 3: Murray 48.6%, McGinn 51.4%
District 4: Murray 53.0%, McGinn 47.0%
District 5: Murray 52.9%, McGinn 47.1%
District 6: Murray 47.3%, McGinn 52.7%
District 7: Murray 59.8%, McGinn 40.2%

Despite the Capitol Hill divisions, Capitol Hill voters rallied together on the measure that will force the neighborhood into tighter political bonds when it comes to city governance. The measure to implement a district-based City Council beginning in 2015, which won by nearly 66% across Seattle, was supported by the majority of voters in all but one precinct in the new District 3.

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