Last March, Mayor Ed Murray set a goal of building 50,000 new apartment units in Seattle including roughly 30,000 market rate units to help alleviate the city’s intense housing crunch. However, market rate developers may already be on track to do much of that heavy lifting and in half the time. According to Dupre+Scott Apartment Advisors, Seattle will add some 26,000 new market rate apartments in three years.

“It’s pretty darn significant,” Mike Scott told City Council members during a briefing last week (video). “We’re basically doubling the housing stock.”

The growth is significant but only part of a longer term boom. Over the past three years, Seattle added roughly 17,000 units, according to Scott, putting the city on track to add 51,000 new market rate apartments from 2012-2019. The Capitol Hill/Eastlake housing stock would expand by just over 50% in that time period.

“It is uncertain how many of those units will actually get built,” Scott told CHS. “Most will probably happen, but if the economy turns or vacancies go up too much that will deter some of them.”

Scott presented his findings last week to the to City Council’s Select Committee on the 2016 Seattle Housing Levy. The committee, along with community focus groups, is tasked with working through the recommendations laid out by the Mayor’s Housing Affordability and Livability and Agenda task force. In February, Murray introduced his proposal to double the Seattle Housing Levy to create a $290 million pool “to preserve and produce affordable housing” as the city moves forward on its goal to create 20,000 affordable units by 2025. That will be crucial as Murray’s proposal for a new affordable housing preservation tax incentive died in Olympia this year.

Compared to past housing booms in the region, Scott said this one is unique for how much it centers in Seattle. Nearly 70% of new construction in the region is happening in the city, while construction booms in the 1980s and 1960s saw less than 20% of new construction within Seattle.

Looking at Capitol Hill/Eastlake, Dupre+Scott estimates around 370 apartments will be under construction through the end of 2016 (counting 20-unit+ buildings only) as planned new construction activity ramps up over the next two years.

Meanwhile, rents continue to rise around the neighborhood. Average rents of all apartment units sampled in Capitol Hill/Eastlake was just under $1,600 a month — up 7.2% over last year at this time. Rents were higher still in two other analysis areas: First Hill and Downtown/Belltown/South Lake Union.

UPDATE: As noted in comments, the 7.2% rise includes new and old units. When excluding new construction, the average rent for Capitol Hill/Eastlake decreases to around $1,300 a month, which is still a 7.6% rise from this time last year. Citywide, Dupre+Scott expect the rise in rents to slow as more units open.

Though the conventional wisdom carries that parking adds significantly to the typical renter’s outlay, spaces per unit are also dropping to 60-year lows, with the average new Seattle building including two parking spots for every three units. Microhousing and “small efficiency dwelling units” have helped contribute to the drop. Seattle has added hundreds of those units since 2010 with average rents going for $871 and $1,151 respectively, according to a preliminary report from Dupre+Scott.

Svenja Gudell, chief economist at Zillow, also briefed council members on the challenges (or opportunities) in the single family home market last week. Record setting housing prices are partially being fueled by relatively low inventory, Gudell said, as current homeowners are hesitant to jump into the cutthroat market.

Some of that pressure is getting relieved in places like Redmond and Kirkland where Gudell said dense development is attracting younger buyers.

“First time homebuyers in search of affordability are going to look towards the suburbs to try to find affordable housing there,” she said. “Of course they’re not looking for traditional suburbs, they’re looking for dense, urban feeling, mini-city feeling suburbs.”