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Even with Washington’s presidential primary moved up, virtual Biden-Sanders Election Night tie might signal end game

An Election Day voter casts a ballot at the county drop box on Broadway

Moving Washington’s primary up to March was meant to give it more importance in the national race to pick a Democratic candidate. It appears to have come just as the race has ended.

In the first results of the state’s March 10th Democratic primary, Sen. Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden appear to be in a neck and neck tie in Washington. On a night when Biden already claimed Michigan and Missouri and with forecasts predicting Biden to do better in late voting in Washington, the Sanders campaign appears to have hit a wall.

Elizabeth Warren was managing a third place finish here with just over 12% of the vote.

The Biden-Bernie battle extended to the streets of King County where results also showed the two remaining candidates neck and neck with around 33 points each.

King County turnout in Washington state’s by mail and dropoff only voting stood at just over 41% on Election Day. About 65% of the ballots were counted as of 8:30 PM. For latest updates, visit results.vote.wa.gov.

Arizona, Florida, Ohio, and Illinois primaries are next in upcoming weeks.

Despite momentum turning away from their boss across the country, Sanders staffers in Washington maintained optimism Tuesday as polls closed across the state at 8 PM.

Before results came in from the set of states voting Tuesday, FiveThirtyEight gave Biden a 99% chance of winning the nomination. This is just weeks after the forecast had Sanders or a brokered convention leading the way.

But that doesn’t mean efforts ceased to scoop up Washington’s 89 delegates, 31 of which are awarded on a statewide basis and the rest of which are based on congressional districts. Just from March 2 to Sunday, the state campaign made 517,797 calls, hit 40,732 doors, and completed 1,321 canvassing shifts, according to state field director Shaun Scott.

“Those numbers are the sign of a campaign that takes its grassroots mission very seriously,” Scott told CHS in a text message. “Lots of candidates have grand ambitions and well-crafted statements, but without a movement we cannot institute the change we need.”

Scott said the campaign’s goal was to build the “biggest grassroots organization ever” he thinks they’ve done that in Washington.

Meanwhile, polls of the state’s primary showed a closer race than expected after Sanders ran away with the state’s caucus in 2016 (despite losing the unbinding primary soon after). The FiveThirtyEight forecast gave Biden a 60% chance of winning the deep blue state, despite being a moderate that Scott criticized for his treatment of Anita Hill during the Clarence Thomas hearings, support of the North American Free Trade Agreement, and authorship of the 1994 Crime Bill.

“Many working people in need of universal healthcare, action on climate justice, and an end to rampant wealth inequality would be disappointed if Bernie Sanders were not the Democratic nominee for president,” Scott said.

On the other hand, Seattle Mayor Jenny Durkan endorsed Biden just days before the primary, lauding his work during the Obama administration.

“Working under President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden for five years, I saw firsthand how Joe Biden fought for working people, LGBTQ equality, health care and criminal justice reform,” Durkan said in a statement.

The Sanders campaign had to cancel its election night party at Washington Hall in the Central District based on guidelines from local health officials to not host gatherings of more than 10 people due to the novel coronavirus outbreak. Scott said there would instead be an informal gathering of volunteers and supporters at Hillside Bar at about 5 p.m. on E Olive Way in Capitol Hill in place of the bigger celebration of their work over the past few months.

Scott added he’s been a part of a lot of campaigns in the past four years, including his own failed run for Seattle City Council’s District 4, but he’s “never seen anything like the volunteer energy we have on this campaign.”

Sanders staffers didn’t give a realistic expectation or goal for tonight’s results, with state director Carin Chase saying she was hoping for “great turnout and delegates for Bernie” and Scott saying “the percentage we’re shooting for is 100%.”

When CHS last checked in to this race shortly after Sanders’ visit to the Tacoma Dome, it appeared to be a progressive versus moderate showdown, but one between Sanders and Warren and former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who spent big time in the state on advertising and staff prior to dropping out before Washington even voted.

Warren had about 40 staffers in the state before recently and appeared to be gearing up for the long haul before also leaving the race after Super Tuesday.

In a “very scientific” poll of CHS readers ranked Biden 7th, behind even entrepreneur Andrew Yang, but their top issue was beating President Donald Trump. Of voters who had Sanders in their top five, health care and climate change were their top two issues. Biden backers? Ability to beat Trump was the runaway number one factor followed by health care and climate change.

Biden has pitched himself as the candidate best positioned to defeat Trump in November and in doing so has rallied moderates, including several former competitors, around him.

 

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12 Comments
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RWK
RWK
4 years ago

I think that Democratic voters are now realizing that Joe Biden has a much better chance of defeating Trump than does Bernie Sanders…..and it’s as simple as that to explain why Biden is now surging everywhere.

Dismal
Dismal
4 years ago
Reply to  RWK

It’s actually the antics of the DNC for Biden and the powers-that-be against a true progressive messaging all over media that will make Trump more likely to win again; not the reverse. Just a rerun of 2016.

zeebleoop
zeebleoop
4 years ago
Reply to  Dismal

While I agree that Trump is likely to win a second term, because none of the candidates seem that great, blaming the DNC and “powers-that-be” (ooh, spooky) sounds kind of dumb. Democratic voters (for the most part) don’t want Sanders. While he may be your guy and you think he should be the nominee it’s clear that a good chunk of your fellow voters don’t feel the same. If you need to blame anyone, blame them.

Jim98122x
Jim98122x
4 years ago
Reply to  Dismal

You can argue that Sanders would have a better chance of defeating tRump. He might, he might not. It’s really not the point anymore. The DNC isn’t cheating for Biden, just not enough people want to vote for Sanders. You can think they’re stupid, you can think they’re wrong, you can think whatever you want. But it’s not the DNC, it’s the voters. The DNC isn’t the Boogeyman this time around, and blaming them just looks silly.

RWK
RWK
4 years ago
Reply to  Dismal

@Dismal: Please explain how Bernie would attract a large number of independent votes, and a few anti-Trump Republicans, in order to defeat Trump. Biden is the only one who can do that.

TwoShedsJackson
TwoShedsJackson
4 years ago

I’ll vote for the old turd as an act of expediency but this will be the Battle of Brain Rot.

Jim98122x
Jim98122x
4 years ago

I know few people who would say Biden was their first choice (me included). But even remotely equating Joe Biden to The Orange Turd is really off-the-charts ridiculous.

TwoShedsJackson
TwoShedsJackson
4 years ago
Reply to  Jim98122x

Yeah, Biden has been looking sharp lately. Strong, even!

Anti-itnA
Anti-itnA
4 years ago

Yes. I really hope that the D candidate selects a good VP. 1. Because that may help turn the tide, because 2. the VP will probably be the P in less than a year (which means there will be another presidential election a year after that).

Matt
Matt
4 years ago
Reply to  Anti-itnA

VP’s who become President when the elected President can no longer serve (for whatever reason) are President for the entire remainder of the 4 year term of office. There is no “early election” just a year later.

Anti-itnA
Anti-itnA
4 years ago
Reply to  Anti-itnA

Matt – Correct. I was thinking that there had to be a special election and that the VP could only serve 2 years of the President’s term, and there would need to be another election.

I was misremembering Ford’s time in office, because he was sworn in in August of 74, and the election was in 76. A normal election, not a special one.

The 22nd Amd. says that if the VP serves -more- than 2 years of the President’s remaining term, they can be elected only once more. If they server 2 years or less, then they can be elected twice more, for up to 10 years in the Oval Office.

LeonT
LeonT
4 years ago

Look, what sunk Sanders was votes. More people voted for the other guy. Not DNC trickery. Not conspiracies against progressives: votes.

Bernie got less votes this time around for the same reason he got less votes the last time around. He had four years to refine his message and show people why he should be nominated, and he failed. Black people still didn’t vote for him. Old people still didn’t vote for him. Women still didn’t vote for him.

Bernie lost. Again. Get used to it.