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Redrawing District 3: Process begins to shift Seattle’s political boundaries

Seattle’s redistricting process is getting started, and the city is looking for volunteers to help guide re-drawing the lines for city council seats for the first time since they were adopted. The city’s system for doing it is hoped to remove the partisan rancor that can often come along with redistricting.

Last year — in addition to being the worst year ever — was also the U.S. Census year, a constitutionally-mandated count of everyone living in the country and where they live down to the counts that make up Seattle’s city council district borders. The census date is based on where people were living on April 1, 2020. So, people who moved over the summer seeking cheaper rent for their remote working will be counted as living where they were. But the new count will still show the major shifts of the decade.

The count is used for a number of federal programs which dole out money based on population. But it’s also how seats in the U.S congress are divided up. Some states lose seats, others gain, and the number of members of the U.S. House of Representatives remain locked at 435 members.

Those same counts trickle down to the state and Seattle level.

District 3 and beyond
While this higher-level government is sorting itself out, Seattle is also re-drawing the boundaries for City Council seats for the first time in more than 100 years. Seattle used to have council members elected by wards, but in 1910 it moved to nine at-large (meaning citywide) seats.

In 2015, the city moved to its current council model – two council members elected at-large, while the other seven were elected by district. Once the 2020 census numbers are in, it will be time to re-draw the lines for the districts.

The process may be delayed, since the Census Bureau was impacted by Covid (and Trump administration shenanigans which tried to find ways not to count city residents in general, and brown and black people specifically). The bureau is supposed to present its counts to congress and the states around now, but has announced it may be delayed until the end of September.

It’s early to say for sure, but any delay may not be much of a problem at the city level, since the next set of district elections isn’t until 2023. This year’s two city council seats up for votes are both at large, meaning they wouldn’t be impacted by boundary shifts.

In the City Council, Capitol Hill falls into District 3, which has boundaries that range roughly from the Montlake cut to just a bit south of I-90, and from Lake Washington to I-5. It’s not likely that the entire city grew at the same rate over these past few years, so those boundaries will probably change a bit.

And here is where the volunteers come in. The city’s system for re-drawing the boundaries involves a five-member committee. Two of the members are to be appointed by the mayor, and the other two by the City Council. Then those four get together and appoint a fifth.

The committee then hires someone who has the proper training and experience to re-draw the lines. The districts are to be compact and roughly equal in population. The new lines are supposed to follow waterways, geographic boundaries, neighborhood boundaries, and try to maintain the old lines as much as possible.

But there will be challenges. In 2019, the Seattle Times reported on the “wildly uneven growth” set to changed the borders and, the Times contended, shift political clout in the city:

The city’s recent population growth has not just been rapid — it’s also been wildly uneven. Because of that, residents of some of the seven districts now have less representation per capita than others. And within the districts, some neighborhoods have gained influence in deciding the outcome of City Council elections, while others have lost clout.

City Council seats are nonpartisan, so the lines can’t really be used to create safe seats for members of the major political parties. Though considering Seattle’s politics, the choices would likely be between the left, the far left and the farther left.

Given these constraints, if District 3 changes shape, it would likely be near the southern end, but really, anything is possible.

Once the new map is drawn up, the committee sends it to the City Clerk and it goes into effect. The Council doesn’t get a chance to change anything, except to clean up any data errors, but even then the council can only act if the commission asks them to do so.

At higher levels
In the congressional count, Washington picked up a seat in the 2010 round, but we are not projected to add or lose any new members of congress this year. Boundary lines for congress will still be re-drawn based on the count, along with those for state representative and state senator.

Unlike some other states where the politicians get to choose their voters, Washington draws its lines through a bi-partisan commission whose maps can only be approved or rejected by the Legislature – they cannot be amended.

Bi-partisan, of course, is a long way from non-partisan, and third-parties are left with no voice in the process. The commission typically does some horse-trading to make as many safe seats as they can for people who put an R or D after their name, while sometimes allowing one to be a swing district.

In the congressional districting last time around, Seattle’s population pretty nearly tracked with the target number for the size of a district, making Seattle’s district close to matching the city limits.

The same commission draws the lines for state delegates and senators. Again, the commission likes to carve up the state into nice, safe seats. But population changes will have some effect. Areas that gained population relative to the rest of the state (like Seattle and King County) will likely end up with a stronger voice in Olympia.

The city is now recruiting for the volunteers to sit on the commission. Anyone who is interested can apply by checking out the city website for more information, and a link to the application. The deadline is March 29.

 

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Frank
Frank
3 years ago

North Seattle (4,5,6) will not change its external boundary. 5 could take a bit from the north 4 (following the lines of 46th congressional district) and a bit of 6th (probably from the West, Green Lake ends at 85th). They should take 10k citizens from Central, but that’s unlikely to happen.

Central Seattle (3 and 7) can’t trade population with each other because I-5, so they would have to give some to South Seattle (around 20k people). District 3 would lose anything below I90, and a few blocks that belong to 37th congressional district. District 7 has the largest excess of population, it would lose all blocks in the 37th and also a big chunk of the blocks in 43rd.

Finally South Seattle (1 and 2) need to distribute those 20-25k. I-5 could become the new boundary between them, or something a bit more irregular.

Seattle is very risk-averse, I don’t expect huge changes.

Jules James
Jules James
3 years ago

Sure would be nice for the 7 City Council districts to be the same as the 7 School Board districts. A couple of volunteer terms on School Board might then become credentials for getting paid on City Council.

joanna
3 years ago
Reply to  Jules James

I think it would be great for the school board governing structure to have an overall change. It is unlikely that will happen before the redistricting; therefore, if you change the school board districts, have them align with the city council districts rather than the other way around. The school district boundaries are gerrymandered to favor the Northend. Some may disagree, but it has long been true.

'DogPark
'DogPark
3 years ago

Obviously, this is an opportunity for the mayor and council Democrats to redistrict Sawant and her progressive politics out of office.

Given the makeup of the redistricting body, it’s all but a given that they take aim at the renter-heavy core of D3 and try to weight D3 more heavily towards the residential and “Gold Coast” areas that are near unanimous in their opposition to Sawant. Just look at precinct data from the last city council election: it’s obvious who votes for Sawant and who doesn’t, and gerrymandering to push D3 is an easy thing to do.

In the past year we’ve seen a “whatever sticks” approach to removing Sawant, and if a special recall election in an off month doesn’t do it, than maybe this will.

RWK
RWK
3 years ago
Reply to  'DogPark

Hopefully, Sawant will be long gone (via a recall election) by the time the re-districting happens.

Ilpalazzo
Ilpalazzo
3 years ago
Reply to  RWK

sadly only people in her district can vote on the recall, as opposed to all of Seattle that is also affected by her SJW cronies in the other districts

Crow
Crow
3 years ago

Based on this growth, Seattle is not dying.

FreeMarkets
FreeMarkets
3 years ago
Reply to  Crow

To paraphrase Adam Smith, there’s a great deal of ruin in a city.

Ilpalazzo
Ilpalazzo
3 years ago

As bad as Capitol Hill district is, nobody wants to be a part of the southern 2 districts, esp district 2. It’s a shame we just have cancerous Kshama Sawant ruining things in District 3