In 2021, there have been around 134 break-ins and burglaries reported across the Seattle Police Department’s East Precinct every month. That’s about one burglary per day better than 2020 as pandemic shuttered businesses and fewer people out and about resulted in a hard to fathom 60% year over year spike in break-ins.

But compared to 2015, 2021’s East Precinct burglaries are up about 43% when controlled for population growth. Compared to a decade ago? 84%.

Auto theft, another property crime category that plagues big city existence, also matches the pattern from SPD’s own reporting system — with reports down in 2021 compared to 2020, up from 2015 and 2010.

It’s against this seesaw pattern that the city’s voters find themselves pondering some of the key questions from months of Black Lives Matter protests and efforts to transition traditional public safety spending from police departments to new community, addiction, and mental health-based approaches in the form of its November General Election ballot. “What if Seattle had an abolitionist City Attorney?,” indeed.

If crime statistics have anything to do with it, across the East Precinct the messages are mixed. Crime on Capitol Hill is down in 2021. And also up.

EAST PRECINCT	SeaStat Offense	2021	2021 projected	2020	2019	2018	2015	2010
Violent Crime	Homicide	4	5	12	5	3	5	2
	Rape	32	40	51	78	58	14	14
	Robbery	209	261	229	218	253	229	238
	Aggravated Assault	408	510	507	459	532	376	229
	Total	653	816	799	760	846	624	483
Property Crime	Arson	38	48	38	16	20	13	10
	Burglary	1,288	1,610	1,896	1,172	1,168	1,195	989
	Larceny-Theft	2,683	3,354	3,246	3,402	3,178	4,357	3,387
	Motor Vehicle Theft	567	709	707	466	455	528	445
	Total	4,576	5,720	5,887	5,056	4,821	6,093	4,831
Grand Total	Total	5,229	6,536	6,686	5,816	5,667	6,717	5,314

According to the most recent quarterly update of SPD’s statistics, reported property crimes have remained steady across the East Precinct in 2021 with the major exception of the drop-off in burglaries after 2020’s massive spike. Total reported property crime here has actually remained stable since 2015 — but increased around 34% since 2010.

But critics of the city’s policing and prosecution of crimes are right — there really have been more reported arson fires across Capitol Hill and the Central District with 2021’s pace exceeding last year and likely to triple and quadruple the totals seen five and ten years ago here.

The critics’ narratives break, however, when it comes to one of the biggest categories of property crime. Larceny and theft is on pace for only a small bump from 2020 when controlling for population and reported thefts are actually down from a surge in theft five years ago. It’s possible but unlikely that some of the most targeted businesses have given up and stopped reporting the crime. San Francisco has also been wrestling with concerns about a “shoplifting surge” despite data that doesn’t show an increase in reported incidents.

The most serious crime categories, meanwhile, also provide mixed messages.

Reports of assault, the most common violent crime, are down slightly in the East Precinct year over year in 2021, but up more than 40% vs. 2015 when controlled for population, and more than 150% in comparison to 2010’s total.

Homicides are on pace to drop in half here with four people murdered across the East Precinct in 2021. In 2010, the precinct recorded two homicides, in 2015, five.

Robberies, meanwhile, have climbed in every comparison — vs. 2020, 2015, and 2010. We’re on pace to record about five ripoffs and hold-ups a week here in 2021 about 24% percent more than we saw in 2010. But included in those totals are crimes that may be missing from SPD’s theft totals. If a shoplifter brandishes a weapon or makes contact with a security guard during an attempted theft, the crime can be and usually is reported as a robbery. SPD doesn’t break out street robberies as a separate category, a crime type CHS can report has dropped precipitously in the last five years in a review of our archives.

Officials have, meanwhile, warned of an increase in gun violence in Seattle and across King County during the pandemic.

With all that in the mix, crime in 2021 is on pace to drop about 1% across the East Precinct thanks to the massive downtick in reported burglaries. And the story here isn’t that much different from the city as a whole where the totals should come in about 2% lower than 2020, up 6% from 2015, and up 28% from 2010, all controlled for population in the increasingly dense city.

That first comparison — vs. 2020 — represents a reopening Capitol Hill, Central District, and Seattle compared to the city locked down, emptied, and stressed under COVID. The rest represents a shift in which the city has gained 400,000 people and gone through multiple recipes at City Hall.

SEATTLE CRIME RATES
Considering the city’s 13% population growth, Seattle’s crime rates, like those in the East Precinct, show the jump in reported property crime. Meanwhile, across the city as a whole, the violent crime rate has climbed about 8.5% since 2010.

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