Supporters of Kshama Sawant have said driving strong voter turnout in the recall election falling between two major holiday periods will be the key to keeping the Socialist Alternative council member in office.

With one week of voting left in the December 7th District 3 recall, more than 21,000 people have already voted. But the strong early turnout could be a sign of major challenges ahead for the political veteran.

According to King County Elections, turnout in the election is already approaching 28% driven by strong by-mail voting in wealthy areas like Broadmoor and along the shores of Lake Washington. So far, the county has received 21,366 ballots. The district has 77,200 registered voters.

The current pace is far in front of returned ballots a week ahead of November’s General Election when the city as a whole hit 55% turnout.

Accurate predictions for turnout in December’s vote are a challenge. Only District 3’s 75,000 or so registered voters can participate and the holiday period’s impact on the results is still not known.

But the results from November do shed light on what kind of District 3 voter is mostly likely to have already made up their mind and sealed their ballot.

CHS reported here on the E Republic line and the areas of demarcation where centrist candidates like Bruce Harrell, Sara Nelson, and Ann Davison turned in their strongest performances in the district on the way to victory. Those areas are also likely to be bastions of strength for Recall Sawant.

According to the early turnout returns, many voters in those areas have already voted on the yes/no recall ballot. In one Broadmoor precinct, 360 of 698 registered voters have already turned in or mailed in their ballot — about 52%. A Leschi precinct has hit 49%. A precinct on the edge of Volunteer Park has hit 45%.

These areas and surrounding precincts, of course, also tallied the highest turnout in the recent general election when Broadmoor, again, for example, turned in a more than 70% turnout in that count.

But there are positive signs for the Kshama Solidarity campaign.

While the strongest turnout totals have, indeed, come in the district’s north and along its eastern shoreline, voters in areas around Broadway and Pike/Pine are hitting turnout totals around 25% already and some areas of the Central District’s core are climbing above 30% with another week of voting to go.

While many D3 voters appear to be bucking recent trends during the state’s by-mail era with early voting in this special December election, there are still likely tens of thousands more votes to come in. And you can expect plenty of those will show up in a drop box on Election Day, December 7th.

You can view the latest turnout totals here.

Ballots in the recall were mailed beginning November 17th. Your vote must be postmarked or dropped in a county drop box by 8 PM on Tuesday, December 7th. Learn more and check on your ballot at info.kingcounty.gov.

The Recall Sawant debate

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