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With 1st Ave streetcar proposal still alive, First Hill Streetcar and South Lake Union lines headed for financial cliff

Increased vandalism was cited as an issue adding costs to maintaining the streetcar system in 2020. (Image: CHS)

By Ryan Packer

As the City Council is scheduled Monday for a final vote on last tweaks to Seattle’s 2022 budget, one of the biggest financial questions for the city’s future will be pushed to the next administration.

Mayor Jenny Durkan’s final budget as mayor allocates funding to keep the proposal for a streetcar along 1st Ave connecting the two existing lines alive. Despite proposed amendments from councilmembers that would have diverted the $2.4 million currently allocated to get the Center City Connector back up-to-speed, next year the Seattle Department of Transportation will update cost assumptions that have changed since the project was put on hold in 2018, leaving any decision on fully-funding the project to a future city council and Mayor-elect Bruce Harrell.

It will be a difficult decision. The city’s most recent annual report on the performance of the existing streetcar lines reveals additional policy choices ahead even if the Center City Connector remains on hold: a budget gap to operate the streetcars that is expected to grow even as ridership slowly rebounds from the valleys seen during the height of the pandemic.

Even though the First Hill Streetcar is expected to see 2019 levels of ridership in 2023, well before the South Lake Union line, not expected to rebound until 2027, a coming budget cliff could impact the First Hill line even more than the line in South Lake Union. That’s in large part because Sound Transit’s annual $5 million contribution to operating the First Hill Streetcar is set to end after 2023.

The amount of extra city funding needed to keep the two streetcar lines operating could grow to nearly $15 million by 2026.

Paired with other anticipated changes, including the city’s agreement with Metro around operating costs for the streetcar, and a contribution from Amazon for operation of the SLU line after 2024, that means that the funding necessary to keep both lines running- on top of the funding that they receive from grants, fares, and sponsorship- could go from $1.92 for every streetcar rider in 2019 to $7.25 per rider in 2026.

The gap in funding for 2022 is currently set to be filled from revenues from the city’s commercial parking tax: around $5 million out of the total $40 million collected. But if the amount of funds used from the commercial parking tax to subsidize streetcar operations continues to grow, that could be fewer funds available for other transportation projects. By 2026, that gap could be close to $15 million dollars, with nearly $11 million of that coming from the First Hill line.

The city’s streetcar report identifies other factors impacting the streetcar system’s financial outlook. A fare evasion rate of 7.5% on the First Hill line had grown to 23% and is expected to hover around 20%. King County Metro adopted policies require a minimum of 25% of revenue to be collected at the farebox. Last year, the farebox collected just 3% of revenues, and has never been higher than 10% in the history of the route’s operation.

Increased vandalism of streetcar assets is also cited as an issue that the system has been dealing with over the past 20 months. “In 2020, there was an increase in the frequency of vandalism against streetcar assets. While both SLU and FHS lines experienced increased levels of vandalism, the FHS line experienced significantly higher levels,” the report read. Damage to the streetcar ticket dispensers at the station platforms was also cited as an issue.

Asked about the anticipated budget cliff, Seattle Department of Transportation spokesperson Ethan Bergerson said, “The projected $14.6 million of local investment needed for Seattle Streetcar in 2026 could be offset by a variety of sources in alignment with the current funding mix, through future agreements with sponsors and agency partners.”

Extending the operating agreement with Sound Transit, which provided funding to construct the First Hill Streetcar in the first place after the neighborhood’s light rail station was deemed infeasible, is the most obvious choice to push the streetcar system’s financials into more sustainable territory. But growing ridership beyond current projections could also improve the financial outlook.

The Center City Connector, with its dedicated lanes intended to maintain reliability and attract riders, and its position connecting two tourist-heavy areas of the city, would likely entirely change the dynamics of what the system needs to stay afloat. It’s not at all certain that connecting the two lines would be enough to ensure that the lines operate with little or no extra subsidy. But without it, there are going to be some tough choices for city leaders to make around keeping the existing lines running.

 

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12 Comments
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CD Born n Raised
CD Born n Raised
2 years ago

I love fake Scare Graphs of the future. 2020 outlier should not be used for predicting future ridership.

Daniel V. Marsala
Daniel V. Marsala
2 years ago

CD?

Aaron
Aaron
2 years ago

The budget cliff is here for my 2 bus routes. The last 6 months, many buses on my route are no shows, especially during AM and PM rush hour periods. As a result, many of us regular riders now drive and park to take the more reliable Rapid Ride or drive directly to/from work now. The result is lost regular ridership on these 2 routes. It’s a well known problem in my area that people who used to take buses to downtown for important appointments will drive instead. I’ve emailed Metro about the problem, but no fix yet.

As usual, downtown core will get big infrastructure funding while outer neighborhoods once again neglected.

Seaguy
Seaguy
2 years ago
Reply to  Aaron

What routes?

btwn
btwn
2 years ago

I’m all for a streetcar that solves problems of transportation, rather than problems of politics (like the first hill streetcar seemed to).

The logic of “connecting” two separate lines because connection escapes me a bit; how many people want to take the streetcar from south lake union to the ID? open to changing my mind – what am I missing?

Why not have streetcars with dedicated rights of way running up Jackson all the way out to leschi? Pine from 1st to Madison?

Confused
Confused
2 years ago
Reply to  btwn

Well and how many people want to take a streetcar from slu to the id via Capitol hill/first hill that makes the journey much longer?

Austin
Austin
2 years ago
Reply to  Confused

SLU to the ID would not pass through First Hill. The route (with the Center City Connector) would be SLU – Downtown/Westlake Area – ID – Yesler – First Hill – Cap Hill.

monswye
monswye
2 years ago

I live in the vicinity of the Roosevelt light rail station. It’s a five minute drive or a 25 minute walk. I used to catch the 522 from Woodenville to go downtown. My trip would take about 15 minutes. Now, the 522 terminates at Roosevelt Station. So my alternatives are: take the bus and then light rail (around an hour traveling time); walk and take Link Light Rail (probably a little less than an hour); drive and take Link Light Rail (about half an hour, providing I can find parking); or drive all the way into downtown myself (about 20 minutes, except at rush hour). Guess which one I’ll be doing.

genevieve
genevieve
2 years ago

How would a streetcar on 1st ave connect the 2 existing lines when the SLUT ends in city center? That would require a few blocks of east-west streetcar in the busiest part of downtown.

I like the idea of a 1st ave streetcar, but don’t see the reasoning to connect it to the SLUT. As btwn asks, what is the targeted demographic for connecting the lines, when light rail between Westlake and Pioneer Square or the ID station would be worlds faster? I ride the streetcars frequently, but they are almost slower than walking.

Ryan Packer
Ryan Packer
2 years ago
Reply to  genevieve

The planned streetcar extension would run between Jackson and Stewart Street on 1st Ave.

PeeDee
PeeDee
2 years ago

Explain to me why Durkan canceled the city center connector?

I mean, I get it, she’s a corporate shill and former federal prosecutor who never should’ve even been considered for the role. And what’s with these prosecutors thinking they apparently have the right to move into the mayor’s office? It seems to happen elsewhere as well….

Oh well, she’s been awful, as was expected, and I’m glad she had the sense not to seek re-election.

But, why was this streetcar line cancelled? Such a mistake, we could’ve had it running by now!

I’m sure Harrell, a corporate shill if I’ve ever seen one, will pursue the same Durkan-style policies so….le sigh.

Glenn
Glenn
2 years ago
Reply to  PeeDee

My I suggest you change your name to Ohhgee? As in, Ohhgee, things are so terrible with all these corporate shills around.