CHS reported that crime in all of East Precinct is up 6% so far in 2009 vs. the same period last year. The same data shows Seattle city totals up 9% in the same comparison.
Today we have the breakout numbers for only Capitol Hill — and the numbers aren’t good:
Total crime on Capitol Hill is up 18% in the first four months of 2009 vs. the same period in 2008.
The good news is thieves aren’t as likely to steal your car this year but the bad news is they are way more likely to bust in and take your iPod.
To the left, I’ve labeled the theft trends so far in 2009 in the four East Precinct beats that cover Capitol Hill. There’s a lot of thievery going on in I-5 Shores and Pike/Pine. Theft, by the way, is basically stealing something without entering a premise (burglary) or using force and violence (robbery).
Here are the totals for other major crime categories by Capitol Hill beat — there’s a larger East Precinct beat map at the bottom of this post to help you get your bearings.
Given some of the small samples, some totals fall within the margin of error so the trends are not significant. The overall 18% increase involves a large enough sample to discount chance, however. I’ve marked category totals in grey that are not statistically significant. The section in blue for the individual beat totals should also be taken with a grain of salt — some of the categories have large enough samples to make significant takeaways but the most important numbers are the Capitol Hill totals.
The table above does not include homicide or rape as the percentage changes are not useful given the very low number of incidents. The incidents, however, are extremely important so they should not be ignored. Totals thus far:
Homicide Rape
2009 2 3
2008 2 2
I’ve also made a table of raw change for the categories so you can see what kinds of numbers we’re talking about:
I’ve asked SPD for their explanation for the big increase in theft and drop in vehicle theft but it’s going to take more time for them to comment on my interpretation of their data. If you have any hypotheses, let it rip in the comments.
East Precinct Beat Map
while those may be small numbers i think they’re pretty significant on their own. in the first 6 months (not quite even) of this year we have had as many or more homicides and rapes as we did in all of 2008.
if the second half of 2009 follows the first then calling out a doubling of those kinds of crimes is useful and shouldn’t be discounted. at least that’s how i see it.
can you provide a break-out, similar to what you did with the other crime stats, of where on the hill those reported crimes have taken place? do they mimic the pattern of i5 shores being crime heavy? thanks for pulling all this together.
I’ll follow up with more info. Might take me a few days, but I’ll see if I can track down specifics for each case. Agree they deserve our attention.