We hear that crime is increasing on Capitol Hill. Usually, the statements are accompanied by anecdotal evidence — a burglary or car break-in. When Kyle Huff went on his rampage, the ‘anecdotal evidence’ turned into quite a boogie monster.
But a closer look at the data so far in 2006 reveals this: The areas where crime has grown the most are far away from Capitol Hill. Using the ‘Uniform Crime Reporting” data from the Seattle police department, we compared the first quarter of 2006 against the same period in 2005. Only neighbor census tract 77 — known to me and you as Madrona — ranks in the ‘Top’ 10 for Seattle crime growth in 2006, driven by an increase in aggravated assault (from 1 to 6 incidents) and residential burglarly (from 7 to 16 incidents reported).
Below, we mapped the 10 areas with the highest crime growth rates in three different categories:
- Major crime (all crimes minus non-aggrevated assault) red circles
- Auto theft (a subset of major crime) yellow circles
- Residential burglary (another subset of major crime) blue circles
We also mapped the 10 areas showing the biggest improvement so far. green circles
Here is the spreadsheet (sorry for the spamy hoster but, hey, they’re free!) so you can double-check our work. If you want to find out what census tract you live in, click here for a handy address look-up tool. In the meantime, sure, there are caveats. The UCR data only deals with reported crime, of course, and many of the totals for some census tracts are quite small so five or six incidents can drive a major change. Also the reports are definitely influenced by policing priorities and practices. Still, there are some truths and concerns in the numbers — instead of celebrating Capitol Hill’s ‘exoneration’ we’re wondering what the heck is going on over in census tracts 106, 107 and 108.
On the flipside, looking at the data this way masks some of these crimes in the anonymity of big numbers. Take a look at census tract #76 in the spreadsheet and you’ll note an innocuous looking 14% increase in total crime vs. 2005 marked by big dips in burglary and aggravated assault. These relatively trivial crime trends, in this light, counterbalance the murder of 6 people. We’re a bit torn by this — is it gross understatement or fitting perspective that Huff’s horrific crime rolls up to a not-so horrific tally?
–j/k