Here are the latest updates on the COVID-19 outbreak and response around the Seattle region, Capitol Hill, and the Central District. See something others should know about? Email CHS or call/txt (206) 399-5959.

• May 18th: Slowly but surely, health experts and officials have started talking about how we’ll emerge from COVID-19 restrictions — a likely series of “loosen, test, loosen” steps that begins with the latest closures and ends, hopefully, with the lifting of restrictions instituted at the start of the outbreak here in March. But now officials are starting to also talk about a date: May 18th —
  

  According to the UW’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), Washington could cross that threshold the week of May 18. Estimates for other states range from as early as May 4 to as late as the end of June, based on the local status of the epidemic. The latest projections are an outgrowth of IHME’s ongoing work to forecast the scope of the epidemic nationwide — in every state — and in several other countries. They come as the group’s work, which has been influential from the White House to state houses coast-to-coast, is attracting criticism from some disease experts.

  In a media briefing Friday, IHME director Dr. Chris Murray cautioned that the potential “opening dates” represent a first stab, the Seattle Times reports. Under current infection, hospitalization, and death rates, some states could begin safely lifting “some aspects” of restrictions as early as May 4th, the research group predicts, “so long as ‘robust containment strategies’ are implemented to prevent a second wave of infections.” Other states including Iowa, North and South Dakota, Nebraska, Utah, Arkansas, and Oklahoma where any containment efforts have been less effective should wait until June or July, the researchers say, if they want to be clear of the outbreak. CHS reported here on the widely followed IHME model’s indicators that Washington had passed through peak outbreak last week. Washington’s current restrictions have been ordered by Gov. Jay Inslee though May 4th but are expected to be extended California, Oregon, and Washington have formed a three-state pact to coordinate the coming transition. In King County, while the rates of new positive cases and deaths have slowed, officials say they would like to see a lower transmission rate in addition to calls for increased testing and better contact tracing before restrictions are lifted.

• Other models: There is a growing body of researchers critical of the IHME modeling and potential for “misplaced confidence in the effectiveness of the social distancing policies.” A competing forecast from another University of Washington research project shows a close to full slowdown across the entire United States by the first week of June if current restrictions remain in place.
• Latest totals: In its latest reporting through Thursday night, King County has now recorded nearly 5,000 positive cases and 331 deaths with the number of new cases continuing to slow. ZIP Codes covering Capitol Hill and most of the Central District have a reported five deaths. King County’s COVID-19 data dashboard is here.
  

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• Wear a mask: You’ll look cool. And you’ll stop <gross!> droplets <yuck!>:
  

  During January 26–February 10, 2020, an outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus disease in an air-conditioned restaurant in Guangzhou, China, involved 3 family clusters. The airflow direction was consistent with droplet transmission. To prevent the spread of the virus in restaurants, we recommend increasing the distance between tables and improving ventilation.

• Home testing results: The Seattle Coronavirus Assessment Network, a first effort at “home tests” for the virus, has reported preliminary numbers that “represent thousands of unrecognized infections in the community,” Geekwire reports:
  

  Researchers from the greater Seattle Coronavirus Assessment Network (SCAN) said Friday afternoon that their best estimate from the first 18 days of results puts the community prevalence of COVID-19 at 24 cases per 10,000 people, or 0.24%, for the initial study period between March 23 and April 9. The prevalence declined toward the end of the testing period.

  While, as expected, the home testing found lower rates of positive cases than medical testing typically involving people showing symptoms, the SCAN results partially counter some early findings that have suggested an even wider “quiet” outbreak involving many more asymptomatic people.

• Filing for unemployment? Pack your patience. Users are reporting lots of challenges as they try to apply for benefits. Working Washington is collecting details of what is going wrong. You can help by adding details from your experience to the Unemployment Review crowdsourcing effort.
• Eviction moratorium and rent hike freeze: Washington will expand its protections for renters during the COVID-19 crisis into June with a moratorium on residential and commercial evictions, and a ban on rent hikes.
• More transit reductions: With a huge drop in ridership, Metro and Sound Transit  are pulling back even further on their schedules. Metro announced more route cuts and reductions here. Sound Transit, meanwhile, is reducing light rail service to trains every 30 minutes.
• Parks: Seattle’s busiest public green spaces are reopened after an Easter Weekend closure but city officials warn they could be closed again — at a moment’s notice — if past crowding returns. The city says staff will be “monitoring in real time” and said it is “prepared to close parks if there are too many gatherings or too many people.” Meanwhile, it is making plans to open about 15 miles of Seattle streets to walkers, runners, and bikers. One bonus for this weekend can be found in Volunteer Park where the road through the area is, once again, closed to motor vehicles.

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