Daniel Carlson, left, and Aaron DelGuzzo of Likelihood
The closure of a boutique sneaker shop just short of its ten-year anniversary is a blow to the continued efforts to grow the backside of the Pike/Pine entertainment and retail district.
Likelihood marked its final day of business at its original Capitol Hill store over the weekend.
“It was a really tough decision,” Daniel Carlson tells CHS. “The CH store is where it all started. We put our heart and soul into making it work. The economics and crime just caught up to us. It was a gut wrenching decision since so many of our customers loved coming into that location. We are going to transition and put all our energy into making our SLU location even more spectacular.”
CHS reported here in 2015 as Carlson and Aaron DelGuzzo debuted the shop, a “men’s footwear and sneaker boutique,” in the newly constructed Viva building at 11th and Union as the neighborhood made early efforts to grow along with the E Pike core.
Change on the backside of Pike/Pine has been slow and was further held back by the pandemic. For a time in 2023, Likelihood shuttered its shop after yet another burglary.
The shoe store reopened and tried to regain its footing but the business partners decided it was time to shut things down for good as the shop came up on its tenth year leasing the E Union location.
Likelihood continues to serve customers at its South Lake Union store.
Meanwhile, the street carries on just a little quieter and with a few changes like a new brewery at its core where Stoup is now in charge of the vats and taps at Broadway and Union.
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I had no idea that they reopened after their closure last year. They seemed pretty sure that they were done with Capitol Hill then lol
This is one of the first suggestions I’ve ever seen that this store was not in fact a money laundering scheme, to be honest. It always was completely empty & it looked like they stocked like 8 items.
Will be interesting to see what pops up there instead!
Ignorance
?
Just the assumption that it’s a company involved in money laundering, and not a well respected and successful streetwear store.
That was partly a joke, but at the same time, I never saw the “success” myself even living a block away–I genuinely cannot remember EVER seeing an actual customer in there. I’m sure they’re well-respected & successful in their own circles (which I assume you’re a part of?) as you say, thoug!
Every once and awhile I look around at all the small businesses that have been forced to close in Seattle because of crime, minimum wage increases, the inability to drive anywhere in the city or park safely and then I remember that Sawant taught economics.
It is shocking how much damage she and the former “progressive” city council did to this city in such a short period of time.
It will take decades for Seattle to recapture everything that made us such a vibrant, unique and sought after place to live.
With the tipped minimum wage exemption ending soon, get ready for more shutdowns.
I hope we all enjoy large chain restaurants!
Lol closing because of parking. Stfu
Park safely != parking. How many times has your car window been smashed when parked on the hill somewhere?
um never – been on the hill since 1997
My car has been parked in the same street spot on 12th for 9 weeks now.
Sawant will live rent free in your mind forever. It’s such a shame the police chose not to enforce any crime from their chud bunker a block away.
Amen!
Sawant lives there because Hillary moved out?
how come it’s always some convoluted reasons that are given. Yet they actually mean nothing. “Sawant” this and that.
Do you blame her for the economy crashing? The entire Earth’s economy? Jump Start..Amazon Tax it’s called. The cons stole 350 million and bragged about all the good stuff they are going to do. So they voted AGAINST. Then? Stole the money and took the credit!
That’s you. That’s the thinking you agree with.
Minimum wage?
Did you know wages have been flat for 50 years? NOBODY except the rich have gotten pay raises. 3 people own 50% of America’s wealth. 47% own 6% of America’s wealth.
But you are mad about minimum wages? Character and IQ alert!
Not quite… 3 people have more wealth than the bottom 50%, that is not the same as 3 people having 50%.
I stand corrected…
TY for that!
The point is it’s a ridiculous amount. Something like 39 trillion in wealth transferred. It’s just on and on. Reagan smashed the tax rates. From there we got to this. D- infrastructure. Pretty sure neither Obama, Hillary or even the mighty Sawant caused that neglect. 6 billion behind in education funding.
It’s just that bullying the least of us is really despicable given the facts. We CAN do better. The social contract is shattered into a bazillion pieces.
Yes to Olive Garden!!
I actually miss not having a Taco Bell and Burger King on Capitol Hill.
You aren’t wrong. We are amongst those that will be shutting their doors in the new year. There are no protective laws for commercial tenants, no rent control for residential tenants. The wage hike *should* have been subsidized by the city in order to continue these hard earned projects to grow and flourish.
It’s really unfortunate and until we stand up for ourselves and each other, it will continue. We are pretty new and we were still gaining traction. Spent a decade planning for this. It’s all done now because I did it here.
right…subsidise profits. Riiiight
Small businesses will blame anything but themselves for why their business didn’t succeed when most likely it’s selling products that are too expensive for what they are, or too niche. The likelihood of Likelihood closing because of crime and lack of parking is low.
lololololololol
Wish I was this delusional, would be way easier to live wherever you do than the real world.
I wonder how much the rent is there and how much that contributed to the closure, too. 🤔🤔🤔
Honestly I wish that these closure posts would share that information as a matter of course. It’s often publicly accessible data. Some of the places I see sitting empty for years expect $10k a month.
Yup! The gym that was abandoned on Pine expected 20k a month and I’m sure it will still expect it.
Gee, I wonder if $10,000 is the number necessary for the building owner to make any money above and beyond construction costs, taxes, insurance, mortgages, etc.? Have you priced any of those items lately? Maybe that information should be included in these articles too.
Glenn, $10,000 isn’t monthly rent for a building. It’s for one of many units in a building.
But hey! Let’s assume our small, scrappy landlord who is totally not a multinational corporation in this scenario is just trying to recoup the costs of construction. Assuming a six-story smallish plot with, oh, let’s go with three ground floor units all at $10k (in practice $10k is far from the cap for a large ground floor unit, as chres has pointed out, but I have to get back to work in a few minutes so you can look up the numbers if you want more precise figures), and ten residential units on, say, 5 floors, each unit going for $3000 each, which isn’t rare for centrally located new construction, we’re looking at $180,000 a month when the building is at full capacity. $2.16 million a year. It’s a midrise, not a high rise, so we’re looking at, what, $20-30 million in expenses to build? So they still seem pretty far ahead of the average individual or family with a thirty-year mortgage.
Of course, the building isn’t at full capacity because the rent hasn’t been lowered to meet demand. Presumably in this hypothetical situation, the landlord has decided to use the space as a tax write-off, since I don’t see how you’ll recoup any of that $$$ otherwise if you leave it vacant for years while you fish around for tenants who can break even on your asking price with their business profits.
Knowing nothing about construction loans, you assume the owner has the power to lower rental prices. They often have covenants with the banks that require them to hit a minimum blended per-sqft number for the building. It is not easy to get those re-negotiated. They often have an escape hatch of not including vacancies in that calculation….hence they’d rather leave something empty.
It’s only when the owner actually owns the building outright that they can be very flexible with tenancy (I’d bet the QFC on 15th E is owned outright by the landlords who were able to lease it to the punk rock flea market for a song rather than leave it empty…)
The only time you really get out of those is a “key man clause” meaning if the person I deal with today. Is not the same person tomorrow due to sale etc. You can walk w/o penalty.
I hope you are in school… me? I’m not, I’m pet sitting. It’s pretty rad tbh… but I’d rather be in school so when I talk about this at least I’m not just passing time.
Thanks for your off the cuff numbers. They aren’t particularly accurate, but hey(!) they sure sound authoritative when you put them out there. It is ok to get a reasonable return on a large capital intensive investment, whether it is a large corporation or local investor doing the development. There seems to be an underlying assumption that losing money on these types of things is an obligation. Sorry, not so much.
Glenn, I told you I was spitballing and asked you to offer more accurate figures if you had them. If you’re an authority on the subject, I’d love to hear.
But surely you can see that if making ends meet is a titanic problem for everyone in the chain of this process (except, presumably, the banks), there is a larger problem that should be looked into and worked on rather than expecting large portions of people renting in Seattle to pay the majority of their income on rent so a smaller amount of people can benefit.
It’s not a shock that rentable spaces hanging open for years when the rent doesn’t lower to meet demand causes problems (and doesn’t fill units). It’s not a shock that smaller businesses won’t be able to pony up the cash for overpriced space. It’s not a shock that people being unable to afford rent leads to higher levels of homelessness. These are inevitable outcomes unless something changes.
They could easily just sale them out the back of a car. I mean, just higher security. They sale Air Force ones for like $350, just give security 10% of each sale + tip. Everything is marked up already.
They sell items for their retail price. They aren’t a resale shop that marks up prices like Solemates.
Pike Pine just still feels off to me. Part of is the traffic, with the 4 way stops a half assed measure to control the traffic, and the constant delivery vehicles (and shoe seekers) camped in the middle lane. Part of it is the hobos, part of it is the storefronts post CHOP part of it probably me just getting older but the vibe just isn’t the same.
I hope the new flower store sticks and this storefront can quickly be replaced but honestly I’m not hopeful. We’ll hear the usual people say “well if crime is so bad…” and refuse to listen to the lived experience of what is from all accounts a successful business owner saying yea, it is.
Make me emperor queen I’d immediately close pike to traffic between 12th and broadway, I’d put a beat cop on the corner of 12th and Broadway permanently, I’d eliminate B&O tax for any new business and so on and and on and on.
Here’s why it’ll never work.
It costs nothing and it works.
Good luck! I’ll be rooting for you!!!
There is already an entire police precinct on 12th and Pike, if the police wanted to permanently be on the street in Capitol Hill they would already be doing it
Why do you think adding an overpaid class traitor is going to do anything? Punishment does not equal public safety. More cops = more drain on other city services that actually make the city better for the people who live here
Perhaps it’s something about the economics of relying on “shoe drops”, $100+ shirts, and selling mugs/nalgenes with “bong water” printed on it…
They are Los Angeles in Seattle is all. “Boutique” means limited selection, high prices and two gay dude complimenting you into a puddle.
Think “Pretty Woman” only on Capitol Hill.
It’s almost, but not quite.
I hate to say this, but Matt might be on to something.
Yes me too. This Matt’s best comment ever.
Of course Matt. Every business closure I read about blames minimum wages, the business climate, etc. Businesses have closed as long as there have been businesses, it’s not like pre-covid every business thrived and lasted forever. Sometimes a business model just runs its course, and sometimes owners are just not great business people.
I think it bothers me with restaurants the most. “oh the wages, the inflation, the this or the that”. Well, restaurants have always been difficult businesses historically, most fail fairly quickly. Yet there are others that sustain business for a long time, and they have the same circumstance. Maybe some are just better at restauranting than others.
Sometimes your products are not unique any longer, or have gone out of fashion. I think Cupcake Royale is a good example, they had an amazing run, but people have moved on. It definitely seems like Donuts have become the popular sweet treat, but all of these donut shops are not going to be here ten years from now either.
FINALLY!
Someone with a handle that matches their posts.
The force is strong with this one.
Came here to say this. They’re selling super-niche and expensive products. Not exactly a strong business model. Their store in SLU is hilariously expensive. Crime is certainly a factor, but also just maybe sell things people want…?
Every time I passed the store, it was empty. Looks like selling 10 over priced ugly shoes to rich guys didn’t pan out for them so let’s just blame “crime” and keep it moving. Meanwhile BAIT shoes has a line down the street just a few blocks away. The store had an awkward location, light if any marketing, and lack of clarity over what audience they were even trying to attract. But sure, you know the chuds from Bellevue are going to see it was “crime” and believe it.
Are you okay?
This is quite an aggressive response for a couple small business owners providing reasons for closing. Do you believe that being victims of break-ins should not be a reason for closing?
They were in business for 9+ years, I wouldn’t necessarily call that a failure. Sorry their products were either 1) not your style or 2) out of your price range, but I would rather have a variation of business on Capitol Hill rather than empty storefronts in the neighborhood.
Did we read the same comment? I detected no aggression–just someone pointing out some pretty straightforward factors that likely impacted their business that they are choosing not to acknowledge.
Well, the article does mentIon the store was burglarized on multiple occasions. That does have a real adverse effect on a business. Was it the sole cause to shut the business? Probably not, but even the owners said crime was only part of the cause. They also mentioned the economics.
Truth…It gets old having your whole life violated repeatedly.
The city council and Chamber have enacted window smashing funds and other stuff. But it’s still not even close to enough. It’ll get better. It’s already getting there. slowwwly
So what this is saying is, expensive shoes on a person don’t mean that they are in the up and up. I thought sneakers and basket balls street shoes meant people were doctors and lawyers and other reputable people. Not broke disenfranchised thieves. What is going on?
I am really saddened at all the negative comments towards these two guys who were essentially small business owners on Capitol Hill. Okay their products or price points may not be YOUR cup of tea but we should be boosting and commending entrepreneurs who have an idea and are willing to take the risk of starting a business, not tearing them down.
They were in business on the Hill for 9+ years, that means 9 years of being a part of the community, paying taxes, providing a variety in the available shops, and reducing the number of empty retail space in the area. Sorry that their admission that the crime they experienced was a factor in closing does not fit into the narrative that there is retail crime is harmless? Maybe instead of turning your nose towards the actual business owners, you start calling out the criminals that do not contribute anything to our community, take more than they give back, and give Capitol Hill a bad name. But we can’t do that cause it makes more sense to denigrate the actual business?
I’d prefer spots that seem to have some actual community, rather than functioning on fad fashion. I have similar feelings for Glossier and a bunch of other stores in the area.
Lookin’ at you, Sweetgreen and Macklemore Virtual Golf Club.
Big cities aren’t for you then.
There’s way more to big cities than overpriced clothing, much of which is made for sub-poverty wages in countries with lax labor regulations… Try getting out and about more and exploring all of the things the city has to offer!
I suggest you do that, considering you’re the one complaining that the stores here don’t give you enough of a sense of community :)
Well then thank goodness all those high end fad furniture showrooms of the before time have left the neighborhood. We can celebrate that the fad automobile dealerships are long since gone to build actual community.
It’s so odd to me how much people have forgone actual community for brands and online influencer community. This store relies largely on one-off designer shoes made for poverty wages in other countries, that are then largely sold online in lotteries to people who treat them as collectibles rather than actual functional clothing. They’re also banking on fast fashion companies like Stussy that are in the market of churning and burning through as much product as possible.
Rather than spending $100 to buy a shirt mass produced to look like it was made in a small shop or someone’s home, actually buy a one of a kind shirt from Spent Studios or one of the vendors at On the Block or in Cal Anderson on the weekends and keep the money local.
Par for the course when a business owner does a narrative violation about disorder.
Yeah it sucks to shit on people while they’re down but remember — the people doing it are actually very compassionate people because they want a state income tax. Which will fix everything of course
I think boutique shoe, I expect a custom carved last of each of my mismatched feet held in the shop for the resident cobbler, who knows me by name, to build the shoes onto, with each order. Plastic crap from an overseas factory doesn’t cut it.