Reported cases of COVID-19 across the state and here in King County have continued to level off after early summer’s rise, state health officials say.

The latest “situational report” (PDF) provided to the state by the Institute for Disease Modeling says estimates show “an overall plateau and potentially slight decline in cases.”

The report cautions that “more time will tell if the downward trend of the estimated transmission rate in western WA is real” and tempers the good news with the reality that the state is nowhere close to in-person instruction as Washington’s public schools start up again this week after the summer break:

The decrease in cases we continue to see in some counties remains encouraging. However, this is tempered by the plateaus and upticks in cases in other counties. Taking King County as one example, a continued plateau of cases will not be enough to safely open schools as case counts in the current situation are too high relative to guidelines. As of August 15, according to the WA State COVID-19 Risk Assessment Dashboard, 4 counties have low, 15 counties have moderate, and 20 counties have high COVID-19 activity. In addition, recent outbreaks are likely to lead to wider community spread as has been seen with previous outbreaks. Finally, with 10-15 deaths per day across the state, if we remain in this current pattern, Washington will experience approximately 1,250-1,875 additional COVID-19 deaths by the end of 2020. With the roughly 1,870 deaths that have already occured, this would likely make COVID-19 a top five cause of death in Washington this year.

The findings build on trends identified earlier this month that showed an improvement in slowing the spread of new cases. In King County, officials continue to increase efforts to encourage people to wear proper face coverings with new mask distribution and giveaways.

Across Capitol Hill and the Central District, the county says the 500th positive case here was reported this week. There have been nine reported deaths — one in August. King County, meanwhile, is nearing the 20,000 mark for positive cases since the outbreak’s start earlier this year.

As businesses including restaurants and retailers are also increasingly reopening under loosening restrictions, statewide numbers show relatively few outbreaks traced back to business settings — though food and drink-connected outbreaks topped the count in the most recent state report with nine reported across Washington:

King County’s COVID-19 dashboard report, in the meantime, shows good signs for many of the key indicators being used by health officials as we turn the corner into fall and worries about how the pandemic will play out amid increased inclement weather and flu season.

Officials are also warning that behaviors including gathering at parties during the upcoming Labor Day weekend could also disrupt the latest improvements.

Another worry for fall and winter? A recent outbreak at First Hill’s Harborview Hall shelter does not bode well for infection rates as wetter, colder weather comes to Seattle.

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